Thursday, August 30, 2007
Constantly-Shifting Demographics in Hurricane-Damaged
Areas Warrant New Jury Venire Studies
 Attorneys
routinely handling cases in the same jurisdictions come to believe, often
correctly, that they know the jury venires in those areas well enough to pick a
jury in most cases without the assistance of a jury consultant. Perhaps the attorneys previously participated
in venire studies or simply tried many cases in their “home” jurisdictions and
thus feel confident in their knowledge of the venires. However, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita have
changed the demographics of many jurisdictions in South Louisiana and the Gulf
Coast region beyond all recognition. As
a result, no attorney should feel confident that his or her pre-storm beliefs
about the venires in hurricane-affected areas remain valid.
This article
briefly reviews the demographic data available in several South Louisiana
Parishes affected by Hurricane Katrina and uses these Parishes as examples that
demonstrate the need to conduct new venire studies before proceeding to trial
in significant cases in hurricane-affected areas across the Gulf Coast
region.
Orleans Parish:
Prior to
Hurricane Katrina the Parish of Orleans had a population of almost 445,000
people. The racial mix of African
Americans to Caucasians was roughly 2:1.
Hurricane Katrina forced virtually all of the residents to evacuate for
at least some period of time, and many returned to find their homes and
businesses damaged beyond quick repair.
As a result, many residents have not returned – a recently estimated
163,000 people still remain displaced or relocated, perhaps permanently. According to the Louisiana Recovery
Authority, about 45,000 of former Orleans Parish residents currently reside in
Jefferson Parish; about 23,200 currently reside in the Greater Baton Rouge
area, and about 9,300 currently reside in St. Tammany Parish and other Parishes
on the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain.
However, one
of the most telling figures is not the current population of Orleans Parish,
but the movement of people into the Parish over the past year. As of the summer of 2006, the Louisiana
Recovery Authority estimated Orleans’ population to be approximately 191,000. Today, some experts place Orleans’ population
at as high as 270,000, suggesting (if these estimates are correct) that about
80,000 people moved back into the Parish since the Authority published last
year’s estimate. Furthermore, with grant
money continuing to flow to hurricane victims under the State’s “Road Home”
program and other programs, no one knows contemporaneously how many people are
continuing to return, or the rate of return.
As a result, Orleans Parish jury venires are constantly shifting
targets, and venire studies obtained even as recently as a year ago may not
reflect the actual venire a defendant may see at trial.
According to
Dave Weinberg, President of JuryScope, Inc. of Greenbrae, California (one of
several jury consultants used frequently by Liskow & Lewis), recent jury
panels he has examined in Orleans Parish were more “blue collar” than before
the Hurricane, probably because the construction and repair industry so vital
to the City’s recovery has rebounded faster than white collar industries. Moreover the racial mix of the panels he reviewed
indicated more of a 1:1 racial mix, but this figure may continue to change with
the shifting population. The jury panels
reviewed by Mr. Weinberg further suggest that juries in Orleans Parish (at
least a few months ago) may have been slightly better educated and conservative
than the panels before Hurricane Katrina.
Mr. Weinberg also concluded from the panels he reviewed that high
damages awards generally should be harder to come by for most plaintiffs in
Orleans Parish for many types of defendants.
Of course, his conclusions in this regard may change as the population
and demographical composition in the Parish continues to evolve.
St. Bernard and St.
Tammany Parishes:
St. Bernard
Parish is located southeast of New Orleans and was completely devastated by
Hurricane Katrina. About 66,000 people
lived in St. Bernard Parish prior to Hurricane Katrina, and almost all of them
were flooded out in the storm. Today,
the Louisiana Recovery Authority estimates that only about 25,000 people have
returned to live in St. Bernard Parish.
Almost 20,000 of former St. Bernard residents relocated to St. Tammany
Parish. In turn, although St. Tammany Parish lost about 15,000 residents as a
result of the Hurricane, it subsequently experienced a net population gain due
of the influx of residents from neighboring Parishes – the approximately 20,000
people from St. Bernard and the approximately 9,300 people from Orleans in
particular. Thus, even though St.
Tammany Parish appears to have a similar total population as it had prior to
the storm, the demographical profile of the of the Parish has changed
considerably, and the impact of that change needs to be studied before a
significant case is tried there.
Jefferson Parish:
Hurricane Katrina displaced approximately 70,000
residents of Jefferson Parish, but Jefferson Parish also picked up more than
50,000 storm victims from more heavily damaged areas such as Orleans and St.
Bernard Parishes. Like St. Tammany
Parish, its population remains similar to pre-storm levels, but the demographic
composition of the Parish is considerably different after the storm. Once again, these changes should be studied
before a significant case is tried in Jefferson Parish.
_____________________________
As the data
indicates, venire studies in many Parishes and Counties along the Gulf Coast
region performed prior to the Hurricanes, and even those performed soon after
the Hurricanes, may be obsolete when evaluating a potential jury venire in the
autumn of 2007 and beyond. Liskow &
Lewis looks forward to facing these challenges with its clients armed with the
best information available, information that perhaps only contemporaneous
venire studies can provide.
For more information, please contact
Scott C. Seiler at scseiler@liskow.com, or Charles B. Wilmore at cbwilmore@liskow.com or go to www.liskow.com.
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